Knowledge about the probabilities of certain random events isn’t always easy to come by; even when such information is stated, it’s sometimes up to us to interpret it and to put a degree of trust behind the claims of the companies responsible for the product. We could always collect our own samples of products to test hypotheses; however, as we discuss in the Investing page, this clearly comes at a monetary cost, and we could encounter issues of availability with rare products.

We’ll take note of the adverstising on the products themselves to deduce some probabilities. As seen in the image here, the top right part of the product states that every pack has 1 Rare card. This is confusing because there is a rarity called Rare, but we interpret this text as stating that there is one card that is either Rare, Super Rare, Ultra Rare, or Secret Rare, the four choices of rare cards available. On the back of the booster pack seen here, we can also see ratios for the rarities; we have 8:1 for Commons, 1:1 for Rares, 1:6 for Super Rares, 1:12 for Ultra Rares, and no ratio listed for Secret Rares. In this case, the interpretation that is common and discussed here is that you can expect 1 Ultra Rare card every 12 packs.